The Return of Sanusi Lamido, Tinubu, the North, and 2027
By Zayyad I. Muhammad
Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi’s two ascensions to the throne of the ancient Kano Emirate have been deeply intertwined with both local and national politics. On June 9, 2014, Sanusi was installed as the 14th Emir of Kano by then-Governor Rabiyu Musa Kwankwaso, seemingly to spite former President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration. Earlier that year, on February 2, Sanusi had been dismissed from his position as the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria for alleging that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) had failed to remit a $20 billion statutory fund to the federal government—a claim denied by Jonathan’s administration. On March 9, 2020, Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje removed Sanusi from the throne, citing his alleged disregard for lawful directives. However, the primary motive behind Sanusi’s dethronement was political, as he had been openly critical of several policies and projects of the Ganduje administration. Ganduje was angered by Sanusi’s penchant to play dual role as a revered Emir and a social critic, a combination that is untenable in the Nigerian context.
On May 23, 2024, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf reinstated Sanusi as the Emir of Kano after signing a state assembly bill that dissolved the five emirates created by the Ganduje administration and dethroned the 15th Emir of Kano, Aminu Ado Bayero. Governor Yusuf’s decision to reinstate Sanusi Lamido Sanusi was also politically motivated, aimed at reversing Governor Ganduje’s actions and continuing the supremacy battle between former Governors Abdullahi Ganduje and Rabiyu Musa Kwankwaso.
Sanusi Lamido Sanusi’s journey from being the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to his dismissal, his installation as the Emir of Kano, his subsequent dethronement, and finally his reinstatement is marked by political intrigue and begins with confusion and ends in confusion. His return as Emir of Kano on May 23, 2024, might seem straightforward, but it is anything but simple. It’s akin to a complex mathematical equation that appears simple on the surface but requires the application of numerous mathematical laws to solve. Sanusi’s reinstatement is a product of intricate local and national political maneuvering, with an eye towards the 2027 elections from all the actors.
Senator Rabiyu Musa Kwankwaso is determined to erase any traces of Ganduje’s influence in Kano politics. Initially, this strategy worked for Kwankwaso without significant interference from the center. However, it has now dawned on Tinubu and his handlers that allowing the Kwankwasiyya group to operate unhindered could lead to the loss of Ganduje’s group support without gaining any substantial assurance from the Kwankwasiyya group. In the 2023 presidential and governorship elections, Kwankwaso garnered 997,279 votes, while Tinubu received 517,341 votes. In the gubernatorial race, Abba Yusuf Kabir of the Kwankwasiyya group obtained 1,019,602 votes, whereas Nasir Yusuf Gawuna of the Ganduje group secured 890,705 votes, a difference of 188,897 votes. Maintaining this voting pattern is crucial for Tinubu and his team heading into 2027. Some members of the Ganduje group are discontent with the centre after narrowly losing the gubernatorial seat at the Supreme Court. If they continue to feel unprotected despite their connections at the centre, Tinubu’s prospects in Kano for 2027 could be jeopardized. Thus, the centre’s support for Aminu Ado Bayero is not surprising. The calculations in Abuja, though not overtly confirmed, seem poised to influence Kano’s political landscape at a critical juncture. Giving the Kwankwasiyya group free hands to operate as they wish would be politically risky for the centre. Abuja needs to have some strong foots on ground in Kano
The ongoing power struggle in Kano is straightforward: it’s an attempt to balance interests, strike a political equilibrium, and prepare the ground for future battles. For the common man, the advice is clear: do not take sides, as these are political manoeuvres made with future gains in mind. However, the implementation of these decisions will inevitably have collateral damage. In politics, there is no provision for a collateral damage estimate (CDE)—becoming collateral damage simply means being in the wrong place at the wrong time. No harm is intended personally.
What’s happening in Kano? It’s a fascinating and high-stakes game—a zero-sum game, to be precise. The same thing happened. On October 22, 1983, Governor Abubakar Rimi established four new emirates in Kano State in an effort to diminish Emir Ado Bayero’s power and influence. His successor, Governor Sabo Bakinzuwo, after his inauguration, revoked the law and restored the emirs to their previous positions as district heads.
Zayyad, a columnist writes from Kaduna
