In Search of Legitimacy: Tinubu’s Attempt to Fight a Double-Headed Hydra Blindfolded
By: Commodore Yahaya Owuna (rtd)
Our President tried to fight two battles blindfolded and with insufficient arsenal to win the war. He removed fuel subsidy whimsically. No cabinet in place, no political or economic advisers and no immediate contingency plans on ground to attenuate the possible difficult resultant situation.
The Nigerian economy is hinged essentially on trade, services and commerce, rather than on large scale industrial production as entailed in developed economies. Any slightest variation in logistics would have profound effect on this economic aspect.
Before the nation could recover from the fuel subsidy removal, our currency was devalued through floatation. Why did the President take these drastic economic measures before thinking through them? It could be that there was no money to run his government and the national debt was ballooning out of control. In spite of these inherited problems, many are of the opinion that the nation needed some form of debate before implementation.
The President was looking for legitimacy from without the country, in view of the tainted election report by Nigerians and the foreign press. Take hard and unpopular local economic actions, the Western world and the multinational finance bodies would applaud him, which in turn could attract foreign direct investment in torrents.
Unfortunately, while the former happened, nobody was ready to bring in his hard earned money to an economy where repatriation was not sure, a nation that continues to experience turbulence and insecurity, a leadership that wants to continue to spend recklessly and a country with a dwindling middle class.
So, we are back to square one. Borrow more to fund the exchange market and pay for the resurfaced fuel subsidy. Running of government has become more expensive. There is more energy devoted to palliative in place of the substance.
Is all hope lost? I dare not say so. We would need to pull up our sleeves for hard work to ensure higher production in all aspects of our lives. There are fortunately, low hanging fruits we can pluck in short to medium term of six months to two years.
We can increase our oil production to 2 million barrels per day, our agricultural production can grow by up to 2% in the next one year. Also if we increase our electric power generation and distribution to 12,000 megawatts and ensure its consistent availability in the next one year, Nigeria’s gross domestic product could increase by up to 5%.
Lastly, there must be a drastic cut in the running of the government. The government must spearhead local consumption. All vehicles of government officials including the President should be sourced locally. It won’t make sense to ask people for sacrifice while you live in opulence.
Owuna Yahaya writes from Nasarawa
