Last week, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory and immediate past governor of Kaduna State, resigned his membership of the All Progressives Congress (APC), citing what he described as “irreconcilable differences.” In his characteristic bluntness, El-Rufai declared that the APC, as it is currently structured, has deviated completely from its founding principles — principles he once passionately defended. According to him, the party no longer represents the values for which he was proud to stand, making his continued association with the APC untenable.
In the same breath, Mallam El-Rufai announced his adoption of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) as his new political platform. With this move, he signalled his intent to work with other disgruntled politicians to present the SDP as a viable alternative ahead of the 2027 general elections. Whether this strategic shift will gain traction remains to be seen, but it has undoubtedly sent ripples through the political landscape.
Leveraging his feisty and unapologetic bluntness, El-Rufai never been one to mince words has launched a spate of criticism for the APC since his exit. He has been consistent in accusing the party of straying far from its founding ideals. Not even the shenanigans of political jobbers like Daniel Bwala and many other Vuvuzelas of the president, many of whom have pretty much dismissed his repeated salvos on APC have come close to slowing him down.
In truth, the defection of Mallam El-Rufai from the APC was always a matter of “when” rather than “if.” Since politics appeared to truncate his appointment as minister and the fall out between him and his predecessor took on a national outlook, Mallam has never hidden his contempt of the APC and the presidency. Nevertheless, his decision still caught me off guard. Personally, I felt Mallam should have tarried a while, exercised a bit more patience, given his stature as one of the party’s foundational members. But that’s just me.
Since his defection though, Nigerians have been sharply divided — first, on whether his decision to leave the APC was the right one, and second, on whether he still possesses the political clout to upset the political landscape come 2027. Both questions deserve careful consideration.
Let me admit upfront that, as an ardent follower of El-Rufai and — why not? — his political disciple, I may not be the most objective voice on this matter. But try, I must, even if just to enrich the discourse with my little perspective.
So, was El-Rufai’s defection the right move? For those who have closely followed Mallam El-Rufai’s political journey, his decision should come as no surprise. One thing El-Rufai does not know how to do is pretend. He has never been one to hypocritically straddle both sides of an issue for convenience. If he no longer believes in the APC’s vision or direction, walking away is simply a matter of principle. For Mallam, there are no middle grounds.
For this, therefore, his defection is, not a question of strategy but of conviction. Staying in a party that no longer alligns with his values would have been the more convenient choice — and perhaps the more politically advantageous one in the short term albeit damaging to his reputation. But El-Rufai has never been one to take the easy road. His political career has been replete with hard, often uncompromising decisions. Relying on all this, I will submit that the decision was the right one!
Now, does El-Rufai still wield enough political clout to cause an upset? This is where critical retrospection is required. Now, critics of Mallam have been quick to point to his failure to deliver Kaduna State for the APC in the last general election as evidence that his influence is waning. They argue that if he couldn’t maintain his stronghold at the state level seeing as he’s locked in a battle of wits with his successor, his national relevance is questionable.
But this analysis misses the mark completely. It overlooks the larger role El-Rufai has played in shaping national politics. Let’s not forget that it was El-Rufai who played a pivotal role in ensuring the APC’s 2023 presidential ticket went to the South. It was El-Rufai who stood against powerful forces, including then-President Muhammadu Buhari, to ensure Bola Tinubu not only clinched the party’s ticket but also survived the Naira redesign aka Naira confiscation policy that many believe was designed to sabotage President Tinubu’s chances.
El-Rufai’s influence, therefore, goes beyond the number of votes he can directly deliver. His brilliance lies in his strategic insight and his ability to shape the political process behind the scenes. Underestimate him at your own risk. Those like Senator Shehu Sani who attempted a political joist with Mallam are still telling bitter stories of that encounter. So, can he upset the status quo? That could be possible as it will depend on the desire of other opposition leaders to entertain compromise.
As for those mocking El-Rufai’s attempt to woo other politicians into the SDP, dismissing it as an exercise in futility, I feel sorry for you. Those with a longer memory will recall similar skepticism before the 2015 elections. At the time, the APC merger was ridiculed as a coalition of “expired politicians,” and many PDP loyalists predicted a landslide defeat for the new party. We all know how that turned out. Before his defection, El-Rufai conferred with many political opposition leaders, including former president Muhammadu Buhari. It is therefore my sincere belief that if he has not drawn some commitment of alliance from them, he may not have taken that giant leap.
As I conclude this piece, let me relate an event I remember vividly even now. In the events leading up to the 2015 elections, somehow, president Jonathan convinced the national council of state that the election be postponed from February to March. With tension hanging ominously in the air, the then-presidential aide Doyin Okupe called a press conference in the state house where he delivered his now infamous outburst, confidently declaring that Muhammadu Buhari would never be president. Well, Buhari won. The rest, as they say, is history. Like Okupe, I see so many people, including serial defectors like Daniel Bwala putting everything on the line to confidently write off Mallam… Hmmm…
Let me let them in on something. El-Rufai’s current moves could well be laying the groundwork for a similar political upset as witnessed in 2015. Did I hear you say it’s not possible with Tinubu? Don’t kid yourself. There’s a winning formular against every politician. The only restraint would be whether those involved are willing to go all the way. Whether the SDP becomes the nucleus of a new opposition coalition remains to be seen, but anyone dismissing El-Rufai’s efforts does so at their peril, needless to say they may live to regret it.
El-Rufai’s greatest challenge will be convincing other key political players to join his crusade against what he has described as the “Lagos boys” who currently dominate the APC. For this, there’ll be so many other disgruntled APC politicians that will abandon ship as politicking heats up ahead of 2027. Because, whether we want to admit it or not, the formation of a new political alliance ahead of 2027 is very much on the table. In this context, his defection to the SDP may be a strategic masterstroke, positioning the party for a prominent role in any future merger.
I almost feel sorry for those laughing at El-Rufai’s expense right now. Nigerian politics has a way of humbling the overconfident and elevating the underestimated. Time, as always, will reveal all things.
I know one thing to be certain, and it is that if there’s any move capable of dislodging President Tinubu in 2027 or even unseat APC post 2027, El-Rufai will be a key player in that effort. Mark my words.
Yahaya writes from Kana of Nassarawa LGA in Nasarawa state and can be reached on: kanaismail@yahoo.com
