As the war the Russian Federation waged on Ukraine rages on spanning up to over 4 months, sparking widespread condemnation across the globe especially from America, that is regarded as the leader of the free world, her allies up to and including the European Union which was greeted with the imposition of both financial and economic sanctions as stringent measurestowards punishing Russia over such invasion.
Interestingly, another major effort out of the numerous efforts being championed by the United States Government towards undermining Russia’s influence and activities was the enactment of a law that will compel the United States to counter Russian influence on the African continent by meting out sanctions on African governments that are complicit in aiding Moscow’s activities titled ‘Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act’. According to the sponsor of the Bill, Representative Gregory Weldon Meeks, a Democrat from New York and the House Committee Chairman on Foreign Affairs, the Bill intends to counter Russia in Africa by tracking its military operations, investments, oligarchs and suspected illicit financial flows. The Bill has been passed by the US House of Representatives, and was read in the Senate on 28 April 2022, and has now been referred to the Senate’s Committee on Foreign Relations. If the Senate passes the law, President Biden will have 10 working days to sign it into law and this will require the US State Department to send to Congress, every year, a report on US measures to counter Russian machinations in Africa. This would also enable Congress to regularly assess the scale and scope of the Russian Federation’s influence and activities in Africa that undermine United States objectives and interests, and determine how to address and counter such influence and activities effectively, including through appropriate United States foreign assistance programmes; and to hold accountable the Russian Federation and African governments and their officials who are complicit in aiding such malign influence and activities.
In what can better be described as a new age of great power competition that beckons on the African continent, America is believed to be leading the way through a broader strategy that is set to punish Russia for its ongoing invasion of Ukraine and at the same time putting forth a response to the refusal of African governments to support sanctions against Moscow outrightly during the March 3 vote at the United Nations General Assembly on a resolution condemning the invasion of which 27 African countries supported, 17 abstained and nine were absent altogether with only Eritrea voting against the resolution.
With the clear manifestation of efforts and enthusiasm of the United States Congress to enact the law mentioned earlier, one can view the action from therealm of expression of unhappiness that Washington feels regarding how many African countries voted at the United Nations General Assembly and their relatively non-aligned position especially towards the American and by extension western interest.
What is begging for answer in view of recent developments relating to the resolve of the United States Government is why were African countries not more enthusiastic about voting against Russia and taking a hardline position regarding its invasion of Ukraine? Will America’s attitude in this resolve be viewed as a disrespect by African capitals for the continent’s sovereignty in decision making?
In trying to analyze the United State government’s efforts to counter the alleged malign influence and activities of Russia and its proxies in Africa, it will be right to situate the action of the United Stategovernment in the context of morality, sovereignty of African nations, power influence, politics, economyamong other issues.
Firstly, under the morality compass, the United States does stand on any moral high ground to hold the Russian Federation and her African countries’ allies to account for the alleged aiding of agents of gross violations of human rights when the US herself is guilty of heinous crimes against humanity in different parts of the world and it is directly supporting countries like Egypt, Israel and even Saudi Arabia that are notoriously known for human rights violations to perpetuate this heinous acts. On the African continent, it was the same United States with her allies like Saudi Arabia that orchestrated the ousting of a democratic, legitimate government of an elected President, Mohammed Morsi and the subsequent arrests and detention of the Muslim Brotherhood members, an action that led to the death of same Mohammed Morsi in detention. The continuous invasion of Palestinian territories by Israel and the reign of terror it continually unleashes not only on adult Palestinians but even on children even when the United Nations Security Council has agreed on the two – state solution as the surest way of ending this merciless occupation of Palestinian territories, yet, it is the same US that is deploying military hardware and technological assistance to Israel to adequately fortify those forcefully acquired territories against the spirit and letters of the United Nations Security Councilresolution.
Secondly, the countries that formed the African continent are sovereign nations that have the right under international laws and their own domestic laws to either align or otherwise with any nation on earth. Therefore, the enactment of the law can be viewed as a direct affront on the sovereignty of Africa, deliberately geared towards mounting pressure on countries to shift their non – aligned position in support of the super powers especially western interests. Nigeria for instance, under General Murtala Mohammed as Head of State changed Nigeria’s Foreign Policy Objective to a Non – Aligned nation, a position the country still holds up to today. Therefore, for America to think of coming up with a piece of legislation that in her understanding will arm twist countries to surrender their sovereignty is even a violation of the same law it is trying to enact. This is because part of the major issues the ‘Countering Malign Russian Activities in Africa Act’ seeks to achieve is to promote and strengthen democratic institutions and independence of states.
Thirdly, when it comes to power influence, it is very evident that after a decline in its influence on the African continent following the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has been steadily rebuilding its soft power influence in Africa through diplomacy, investments and defenceagreements. Of these, the area where its influence is most apparent is in defence. Russia is now the largest exporter of weapons to sub-Saharan Africa, with exports increasing by 23% from 2016 to 2020 when compared to the period between 2011 and 2015, according to the database of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). These weapons sales have become a tool by Moscow to influence African political and military leaders and this gives the Russians a significant control of the African arms market with a 37.6% market share between 2015 and 2019. This is more than twice the share of the United States with 16%, France with 14%, and China with 9%. Algeria reportedly remains the biggest customer of Russian weapons on the continent, followed by Egypt, Sudan, and Angola. It is now estimated that Moscow may account for as much as 49% of total arms exports to Africa, according to the same database of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Nigeria in 2014, at the peak of the insurgency and terrorism in the North East when the United States refuse to sell weapons to the country to vigorously prosecute the war hiding under a hypocritical law called the “Leahy Law” – that bars either the United State Departments of Defense and State to offer defense and military assistance to countries that is established that their armed forces units are involved in human rights violations. Nigeria at that time had to resort to Russia for the purchase of military hardware like the T – 72 Tanks and others which eventually turned out to be the game changer in the fight and up to the twilight of the 2015 general election, the country recorded historic milestones in the war on terror. In six weeks in February to March, the Nigerian armed forces liberated most of the territory held by Boko Haram terrorists. It is this steady rise in the power influence of Russia on the continent that America is trying to whittle down with this new legislation. For the earlier highlighted countries, Russia has proven to be an ally because a friend in need is a friend indeed.
Fourthly, in terms of the economic side to this conversation, for instance, in 2020, Russia exported $12.4 billion worth of goods to Africa and bought only $1.6 billion worth of goods from the continent. From Russia, Africa mainly buys grains (30% of overall imports), especially wheat, which alone accounts for about 95% of the cereals imported into countries on the continent. It suffices to state that more than half of the wheat supplies from Russia are absorbed by the most populous countries on the African continent notably Egypt, Sudan, Nigeria, Tanzania, Algeria, Kenya, and South Africa. Besides grains, Africa also buys mineral fuels such as coal, oil products, and gas from Russia. These account for 18.3% of the total imports. For its part, Africa sells mainly edible fruits and vegetables, aquatic products, organic chemicals, and precious metals to its partner. However, this trade volume gives Russia only a 2.4% market share in Africa-bound trade compared with the European Union with 33% and China with 19%. Evidently, it is not trade that has dampened the enthusiasm of African countries with respect to taking sides in this conflict. But America is determined to whittle down this Russian economic influence on the continent in furtherance of her objectives and interest of dominating the African market hiding under the guise of this new legislation.
Fifthly, on the political front, Russia is gradually making incursion even into territories that were hitherto friendly to the US interests. This because the outcome of the voting at the UNGA suggests that Russia has a soft spot in the hearts of many African countries. Interestingly, shortly after the disappointing March 3 UNGA resolutions, obviously unsatisfied withthe choice of about a third of Africa’s position, decided to take things further where US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Macky Sall, chairperson of the African Union in an attempt to press home US demands in what many analysts have viewed as America’s paternalistic attitude towards the continentleaving the questions on the lips of many analysts as to why were African countries not more enthusiastic about voting against Russia and taking a hardline position regarding its invasion of Ukraine?
Lastly, Although the sponsor of the Bill, Representative Meeks has cast the bill as intended to protect Africa’s fragile states and all innocent people who have been victimized by Putin’s mercenaries and agents credibly accused of gross violations of human rights in Africa, including in the Central African Republic and Mali, but for discerning minds either on the African continent or elsewhere knows that America from her antecedents cannot be said to be doing something of this magnitude just to protect the target populations, ultimately, the bill will be viewed in many African capitals as an expression of the unhappiness that Washington feels regarding the non-aligned position of not only majority of African countries; but even the most influential, Nigeria inclusive.
What is important for Americans to know is that no matter the quantum of detest it has for Russia and her invasion of Ukraine, African countries as sovereign as they are will always align were they feel their perceived interests will be adequately protected and guaranteed and I believe that is what every rationale country should do. Above all, as the new age of great power competition in Africa beckons, Africa and indeed Africans are in a position of strength to determine how to pursue diplomatic relations that guarantee the protection of their interests and that will be mutually beneficial to both parties.
Abubakar Ahmed, a Political Journalist & Researcher with Liberty Television and Radio, writes this piece from Kaduna.
