2027: Can Atiku, Wike, Obi, And Kwankwaso Do The Needful?
By: Nurudeen Dauda
To start with, the PDP as the “main” opposition party in 2019 had Atiku-Obi ticket where it polled 11.2m votes while the then incumbent President Buhari of the APC polled 15.1m votes. In 2023 Mr Abubakar of the PDP polled 6.9m votes, Mr Obi of the LP polled 6.1m votes, and Engr. Kwankwaso of the NNPP polled 1.4m votes. The three major candidates of the three major opposition parties in 2023 polled 14.5m votes while President Tinubu of the governing APC polled 8.7m votes.
The three major candidates of the three major opposition parties were all in the PDP few months to the PDP’s presidential primary elections. Engr. Kwankwaso left two months to the elections while Mr Obi left three days to the elections. It is ,however, now crystal clear to everybody that the only way to defeat a ruling party is by forming a strong and a united opposition force.
In 2013, the then opposition parties of CPC, ACN, ANPP, and a faction of APGA merged and formed the APC for the elections of 2015 where they defeated a seating president for the first time in the history of Nigerian politics. Prior to 2015 the then opposition parties of CPC, ACN, ANPP, and APGA fielded different candidates in the 2011 presidential elections and were all defeated by the then ruling PDP.
WIKE VS ATIKU’S DISAGREEMENT
Governor Wike’s camp main “issue” with former VP., Atiku Abubakar was largely on which “region” between the “south” and the “north” should produce president in 2023. The then Governor Wike’s camp insisted that a northerner should not succeed a northerner after 8 years in power especially in a party that has a written “zoning” formula in its constitution. Mr Abubakar’s camp, on the other hand, argued that the 8 years in power was not under the PDP. They further argued that the PDP must choose between “zoning” and “power” implying that the only way the PDP could return to power in 2023 was by fielding a northerner.
The PDP as a party despite a “clause” of “zoning” in its constitution refused to take an “official” stand on the issue of zoning. However, all the 17 governors from the south from all parties met in “Delta” state government house and took a “unanimous” position on “zoning” where they all agreed that 2023 was a southern “turn” and all of them should “push” for a southern president in their parties.
After the PDP’s presidential primary, Wike’s camp felt terribly betrayed by the following group: one, some southern governors of the PDP who allegedly had a “deal” with Mr Abubakar despite their earlier “agreement” to support a southern candidate. Two, Mr Ayu the PDP chairman was accused of bias by Wike’s camp when he publicly declared governor Tambuwal as the hero of the PDP’s convention. They accused him of unfair treatment by giving extra minutes to Tambuwal having used the equal minutes given to all candidates. Tambuwal used the extra minutes given to him to step down for Mr Abubakar who eventually won.
Three, Wike’s camp felt betrayed by both Mr Ayu whom they allegedly made the party’s chairman and Governor Tambuwal whom they allegedly assisted in the PDP’s 2019 presidential primaries. Four, it was allegedly said that Mr Abubakar visited Mr Wike immediately after he won the PDP’s ticket and promised to pick him as his VP, but he however, went ahead to setup a 19 man committee through the party to advice him on who to pick as his VP. It was allegedly said that the committee recommended governors Wike, Okowa and Udom in the same order, but Mr Abubakar picked Mr Okowa instead.
OBI VS ATIKU’S DISAGREEMENT
Mr Obi’s camp main “issue” with Mr Abubakar’s camp was not only on the issue of “southern” president in 2023, but was also on a “strong” case of an “Igbo” presidency from the south having had a “Yoruba” and a “Niger Deltan” minority as presidents from the south. Mr Obi’s camp felt that it was not only a southern turn, but also an “Igbo” turn if justice and fairness were to be considered. Mr Abubakar’s camp insisted that the quickest road to the PDP’s return to power in 2023 was to field a northern candidate. Mr Obi left the PDP few days to its presidential primary having foresaw that their camp’s strong case for not only a southern candidate , but also an “Igbo” presidency in justice and fairness to the south-east geo-political zone which remained faithful to the PDP since its formation would not be considered.
KWANKWASO VS ATIKU’S DISAGREEMENT
Engr. Kwankwaso’s camp main “disagreement” was essentially with the leadership of the PDP in the north west geo-political zone whom they accused of “underestimating” Kwankwaso’s political “strength” by “undermining” his desire to elect the north west zonal vice chairman of the PDP which was “micro zoned” to Kano where they strongly felt he was the unquestionable party leader. Similarly, Engr. Kwankwaso’s camp felt strongly that he had the capacity, the experience, the energy and the following across the country to be the president in 2023.
It was alleged that Kwankwaso’s camp strongly believed that their leader Engr. Kwankwaso would naturally inherit president Buhari’s massive followership in the north which even if he did not win the 2023 election he would put in a very good fight that would make him to be a major political force that must be reckoned with in the future.
However, of all the three issues discussed, LP gave the PDP a deadlier blow in the 2023 general elections than the rest. From 1999 to 2019 PDP had always won elections in the following states landslide: Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Anambra, Edo, Cross River, Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Plateau, Taraba, and the FCT.
In the 2023 elections results, LP dislodged the PDP and won landslide in : Abia, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, and Anambra states . LP also dislodged the PDP and won with good margins in Edo, Cross River, Delta, Plateau, and Nassarawa states and the FCT. LP did a serious damage to the PDP’s votes in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Taraba, Adamawa, and Kaduna states where the PDP won. LP damaged the supposed PDP’s votes in Lagos, Benue, and Kaduna states.
It is left to be seen between now and 2027 whether the three major opposition group that broke away from the main opposition PDP will resolve their differences. We certainly need a strong and united opposition party that will always keep the ruling party on its toes in order to prevent abuse of power.
May God bless Nigeria!
Nurudeen writes from Kaduna
